Kuopio is growing strongly, but continued growth cannot be taken for granted

Kuopio has strengthened its position among Finland’s growing cities. At the same time, demographic changes are under way that no city can avoid: the number of children is declining, the population is ageing, the working-age population is shrinking, and population growth is becoming increasingly linked to international migration. According to Rasmus Aro, Leading Expert in Regional and Demographic Development at MDI, Kuopio is in a strong position today, but future growth cannot be taken for granted.

Kuopio continues to grow. At the end of September 2026, the city had 127,259 residents, compared with 126,572 at the end of 2025. In 2024, Kuopio had a total of 55,759 jobs. The city is a major regional employment hub.

The current figures paint a picture of a strong and growing city. But looking ahead to 2050, the question becomes more complex: what will drive Kuopio’s future growth, and where will its new residents come from?

Differences between municipalities are growing

According to Rasmus Aro, Finland’s municipalities have already undergone a major demographic transformation, and the change is continuing.

“The differences in development between regions are growing, the number of municipalities with a growing population is declining, and the gap between growing and shrinking municipalities is widening. The population is declining in as many as 80% of Finland’s municipalities. Unless there is a major structural change in this development, the trend will continue.”

At the same time, several changes are affecting the entire country. The number of children is falling and school-age cohorts are shrinking, including in large cities. The population is ageing and the working-age population is declining. Internationalisation, meanwhile, is progressing at different rates across municipalities, but in an increasing number of them, population growth is specifically linked to immigration.

Kuopio is also affected by all these inevitable trends.

Aro particularly highlights changes that will take place regardless of how attractive the city is. The number of school-age children will continue to decline at least until the 2030s. For this reason, he says it would not be realistic to base service planning on a scenario in which the number of schoolchildren remains at its current level.

At the same time, the number of very elderly people is increasing rapidly. In addition to its impact on wellbeing services counties, this will affect housing, mobility and access to services, while increasing the need to address social risks such as loneliness and poverty.

Growth does not eliminate the need to adapt to changes in the population structure.

Kuopio has strengthened its position, but it also needs an attractive and thriving Eastern Finland

According to Aro, during the 2010s and 2020s Kuopio has strengthened its position among Finland’s growing cities, alongside other major university cities. However, there is still uncertainty about the future.

Under the trajectory outlined in the national population projection, Kuopio’s growth would slow and could even turn negative in 2040 if the city’s current level of attractiveness remains unchanged. Aro notes, however, that there are also grounds for a future scenario in which Kuopio continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace.

Kuopio has a strong starting point. Aro considers the city’s size to be one of its advantages: Kuopio is large, but not too large. It can offer the services of a major city without all the challenges of everyday life associated with Finland’s largest cities. According to Aro, Kuopio also has a relatively positive image and reputation.

“However, Kuopio needs to increase its attractiveness elsewhere in Finland as well, particularly in the Helsinki, Tampere and Turku regions,” Aro says.

What matters is not only who comes, but who stays

According to the City of Kuopio’s statistics, Kuopio’s net migration gain has increased significantly during the 2020s, with growth relying increasingly on immigration. At the end of 2025, Kuopio had 6,666 foreign citizens, representing 5.3% of the population. The number of residents with a foreign mother tongue was 9,208.

According to Aro, internationalisation will continue. This will also be reflected in the city’s services and, for example, in schools, where pupils will come from increasingly diverse backgrounds. At the same time, the risks of segregation need to be recognised, although Aro says these remain relatively limited in Kuopio at present.

“From the perspective of the future, however, the key issue is not only attracting new residents, but also encouraging them to stay. Kuopio’s ability to retain students is not poor. In fact, it is stronger than in Joensuu and Jyväskylä. Even so, a significant proportion of students leave after graduation. The challenge is even greater when it comes to international students.”

One of the crucial factors is finding the first job in one’s own field. Internships and summer jobs already create connections with local working life during studies. Local companies and organisations therefore play a key role in retention. According to Aro, one of Kuopio’s advantages is its relatively diverse economic structure. In 2024, the city had a total of 55,759 jobs. The essential question, therefore, is how Kuopio’s labour market will develop in the future and whether there will be enough entry-level career opportunities for educated young people.

Language skills are essential to the employment of international talent

When it comes to international students, Aro places strong emphasis on language. In his view, greater emphasis should be placed on Finnish language teaching already during studies, and international students should not be separated so extensively from Finnish-speaking students and study programmes.

At the same time, there should be a closer look at what level of Finnish language proficiency is actually required in different jobs. According to Aro, employers’ language requirements may in some cases be unnecessarily strict. This makes it more difficult for international talent to find employment and may contribute to pushing them towards larger labour markets. Kuopio loses immigrants to the Helsinki metropolitan area through internal migration.

On the other hand, the growing number of international residents may gradually strengthen communities and networks in the city, making it easier for new international residents to settle and integrate. In this way, the ability to retain residents can also create new attractiveness.

Retention is built together

The city cannot tackle retention on its own. It requires cooperation between the city, companies, the University of Eastern Finland, Savonia University of Applied Sciences, other educational institutions and employers in the region. The key is to build pathways from education into working life while students are still studying.

“The city can play a concrete role in this, for example by offering internships and facilitating dialogue with employers. At the same time, Kuopio should maintain its broad range of university and university of applied sciences education, as a diverse selection of fields of study is an important factor in the city’s attractiveness.”

Housing also affects the city’s potential for growth. Aro identifies a potential risk if a prolonged downturn in construction were to result in a shortage of suitable housing for people moving to the city. A total of 310 new homes were completed in Kuopio in 2025. In a university city, the availability of new rental housing and student housing is particularly important. At the other end of the demographic spectrum, the rapidly growing elderly population needs housing suited to its needs. Housing policy is therefore directly linked to population policy.

The current situation will not continue on its own

Kuopio is therefore in a strong position today. The city is growing, it offers a diverse range of educational opportunities and has more than 55,000 jobs. But a strong position today does not in itself determine where Kuopio will stand in 2050.

Some changes will take place regardless. The number of children will decline, the very elderly population will grow and Kuopio will become increasingly international. The city needs to prepare for these changes now through its services, housing and urban development.

“This is about Kuopio’s position at the national level. The city’s growth does not happen in isolation from the rest of Eastern Finland. Kuopio needs a thriving Eastern Finland, but at the same time Eastern Finland needs a strong centre capable of competing for the residents, students, talent and jobs of the future as Finland’s growth centres compete with one another,” Aro says.